Posted by: 29-12-2018, 11:07
Everyone talks about the global crisis in 2019. What to expect?
Is the world facing a global crisis?
The global economic crisis next year is predicted by most experts and analysts. What to expect in the new year?
The closer the new year, 2019, the more active analysts and experts make predictions about what it will bring to the world. The most popular forecast is the global economic crisis, following the example of the 2008 and 1998 crises.
In addition to the theories about the cyclical nature of the crisis and the predictions of astrologers, there are real prerequisites for the world to face problems.
The end of 2018 brought one of the worst weeks for American exchanges in the last ten years — the S & P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices closed sharply lower.
Commodity prices are plummeting: business is confident that production in the world will fall, less raw materials and energy will be needed.
The US financial reserve raises the discount rate, preventing a possible surge in inflation.
US consumers look at the economic situation in 2019 with a negative attitude. Small business optimism about improving the economy fell to a two-year low, and companies expect less profit next year.
There is also no political stability in the world — while Donald Trump is at war with all the US government is left without money and does not work at full strength, Europe will be finished with Brexit in 2019, populists are increasingly winning elections, France’s riots, and Germany is waiting for political changes generations.
The International Monetary Fund predicted that the growth in world trade in 2019 will slow to 4% compared with 4.2% this year and 5.2% in 2017.
According to experts, the main question is whether Washington and Beijing will be able to conclude an agreement on trade before March 1.
The probability of a global economic crisis in 2019-2020 is very high. The question is different — how global will it be, financial expert Alexey Kusch believes.
«One of the versions is that the world economic crisis will begin with China. The following year may coincide short, medium and long-term cycles of economic activity. Short-term associated with commodity, raw materials stocks. Medium-term — with capital investment. After short cycles, enterprises reduce investment, slowing economic growth. Long-term — with the transition to a new technological structure. In the global economy, the main role will be played by nano-, biotechnologies, informational and cognitive” the expert says.
If the epicenter of the crisis is in China, it will have powerful implications for the global economy. Including for the market of raw materials. After all, China is one of the largest consumers of metal and oil.
„However, a global crisis may not be. It will be replaced by a crisis in the market of developing countries. So it was in 1998. Then came the Asian crisis. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia have suffered. Later — Argentina and the Russian Federation. Today we are already seeing the first crisis points — Argentina, Turkey. Brazil may be joining soon”, says Alexey Kusch.
No one dodge
«They say that 2019 is the year of the pig, but in fact 2019 is the year of the bear. I think that the year 2019 will be very difficult, simply catastrophic, the world will face a crisis comparable to that caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, or even worse” said Alpari Alexander Razuvaev, director of analytical department.
He compared the situation with the history of a decade ago.
«If in 2008, the global finance world was saved by Barack Obama and the US Financial Reserve System, then Donald Trump cannot be charged with this issue. He does not like the global market, he does not like globalists at all, and they pay him the same coin. Of course, so far it seems impossible, but I would not be surprised if the result of the new crisis is the collapse of the dollar world into several currency zones and the restructuring of American debt. Perhaps there will be a single currency for the United States, Mexico and Canada“ — suggested Razuvayev.
Like many of his colleagues, the expert notes the risks associated with the «bubble” in the US stock market.He does not believe that Americans will be able to prevent a collapse. After all, for this to be complete understanding between the US central bank and the White House. But this is not. As evidenced by the constant negative attacks of Donald Trump in the direction of the Fed.
Razuvayev also predicts a price failure in the US stock market and a sharp reduction in the price of oil — right up to 30-35 a barrel for the Brent brand. All this, in his estimation, should drive the States into a real recession.
“All of us in 2019 will just have to go through, or rather, to endure. And who still has the money to buy cheap assets” concluded the expert.
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