Posted by: 25-12-2018, 15:19
China fell on the turn of Russia. United States knocked out the second world economy
The United States continues to win the battle for the battle in the third world trade war. Trump wins are not easy, but enviable persistence always brings results. Mexico bent first, then Canada surrendered. Now China has decided to throw out the white flag, and Russia is preparing to stand in a queue.
So far, US intentions coincide with purely Ukrainian interests, but Trump's heroic struggle against the Russian gas pipeline, bypassing our country, only seems like a «carrot”, although at first glance it fits perfectly into the program of comprehensive support for Kiev. And while the whole world applauds the outstanding negotiating talents of the American president, celebrating the „abolition“ of the threat of a global crisis, Ukraine risks staying with nothing.
On Wednesday, the key global media scattered news: China expressed its willingness to reduce duties on American cars from 40% to 15%. All the previous week, after the G20 meeting, economists of all ranks warmed up the public, talking about the significant advances in negotiations between the two largest economies in the world ($ 19 trillion — US, $ 13 trillion — China).
A news background clearly testified to the warming of US-China relations. That Canadian court will release on bail financial director of Huawei Meng Wanzhou, which is threatened with extradition to the United States in the case of violation of the sanctions regime against Iran. That Donald Trump will offer assistance to an unhappy Chinese woman, if only it would help the settlement of trade disputes between the two countries.
Markets reacted encouragingly to the news: stock indices in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region ended with active growth in trading on Wednesday on almost all fronts. So, MSCI Asia Pacific consolidated stock index ATP jumped 1.6%, Chinese Shanghai Composite index added 0.31%, Shenzhen Composite — 0.16%, Hong Kong Hang Seng — 1.6%, Indian BSE Sensex — 1, 8%, Japanese Nikkei 225 — 2.15%, Australian S & P / ASX 200 — 1.4%, New Zealand NZX 50 — by 0.8%, South Korean Kospi — 1.4%, and Indonesian Jakarta Composite — 0.6%.
The US is coming
The states, having unleashed the tsunami of trade war, step by step, «press on” their competitors. After leaving NAFTA, Washington succeeded in the beginning of the surrender of Mexico, and then, jointly with the Mexicans, forced its new northern neighbor to a new agreement. And after a few days, it was the Canadians who „helped” Trump with the detention of the director of Huawei.
«The states are purposefully pursuing a policy of“ pushing through ”their trading partners. Economic wars are underway to gain markets and additional sources of resources and preferences. China and the States will certainly agree, the only question is which concessions are they willing to make to each other. They play together against a number of countries and depend on each other not only in the economy. They will have to agree, ”said Viktor Shulik, director of the market research department of the rating agency IBI-Rating.
However, even if China and the United States agree on an equal «union," it is the States that will play the first violin, who are proving to the whole world and so far very convincingly that they are the world hegemony.
„The United States at the moment has achieved what they wanted. They proved that they are leading in a new agreement with Canada and Mexico, although formally all parties have equal rights in it, ”said Oleg Ustenko, executive director of the International Blazer Foundation, to UBR.ua.
It should, however, be noted that the States play on the verge of a foul. All experts note the characteristic style of negotiation by Trump — at gunpoint. But this aggressive tactic has a downside: although the US economy is still feeling confident, there are also noticeable symptoms. Trump's unexpected overtures to China may have been carefully calculated and due to just these painful symptoms.
«Both sides feel great difficulties in connection with the confrontation.If we look at the statistics, despite all the restrictions and trade wars, the US trade balance is at its minimum for several years, and their trade deficit against China is generally at record lows. The states themselves are now suffering greatly from trade imbalances, so Trump’s position is very clear. China is also experiencing great difficulties, as the slowdown of its economy is fraught with internal shocks, ”said Andrey Shevchishin, a senior analyst at FOREX CLUB.
The expert stresses that the threat of a large trade war leads to a reduction in foreign trade, a decrease in trade, a drop in production, and a loss of jobs. And if two super-economies find a common language, the world will breathe a sigh of relief. That is what the markets showed on Wednesday. And although the negotiations have not yet been completed, and the threat of a global crisis has not yet passed, for some time it can be forgotten.
Next in line is Russia
It is not known whether this was so conceived or simply coincided, but at the same time with the outflow on successful negotiations with China, the US House of Representatives promulgated several important resolutions. The first concerned the recognition of the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. In the second, a «bipartisan” resolution, the American parliament unanimously condemned Russia's military aggression against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait. In the third — strongly opposed the «Nord Stream-2.“
The latest document is directed against the main lobbyist of the project — Germany, which leads the last major rival of the United States — the European Union. But it is also hitting badly by the initiator of the project — Russia. The resolution on the gas project is not in vain combined with the «Ukrainian” issue. The political closeness of Ukraine and the United States in recent years against the backdrop of armed Russian aggression has an economic basis, because both Ukraine and the United States are against the Nord Stream II (SP2). Ukraine, for example, because of it can lose a significant part of the fees from the transit of Russian gas to Europe, so the US support will allow Kiev to keep the amount of foreign exchange earnings that goes to the treasury now.
However, experts advise not to flatter too much — the interests of the United States and Ukraine coincide only at the initial stage. In the future, they diverge, because the US wants to squeeze out Gazprom from the European market, where they supply their liquefied gas.
«These loud statements were made in a purely Trumpian manner: to press fully, and then agree. Nord Stream II really carries the threat of a reduction in transit volumes for Ukraine, but the main problem is that all such statements are directed only against SP2, but in no way protect the Ukrainian gas transport system. Constructive for the further development of our route is not, and when the political game is over, we can stay at the bottom of the trough. Ukraine for the United States is not so much an ally as a convenient tool to put both Moscow and Brussels at the same time and take away part of the European gas market from Gazprom, ”said energy expert Valentin Zemlyansky.
The fact that Germany is forced to advocate the extension of sanctions against Russia (but not against the joint venture) suggests that the tool is really very convenient.
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