Posted by: 17-11-2018, 12:31
China: from the world factory - to the world investor and hegemon?
No matter how much the United States authorities want to pull production from China to the USA, but Уlife finds a wayФ: because of the contradictions between the two countries, Apple suppliers move from the Chinese ... to neighboring Vietnam. And even then - not completely and not exactly. The capitalist system shows that since the beginning of the twentieth century, the instability inherent in it has not gone away: business goes where labor is cheaper and demand is greater.
The quantity, as is known, turns into quality - which means that soon both China and the United States will have to appear before us in roles unusual for us. The Chinese have been talking about a new, УChinese globalizationФ for several years. Similar forecasts were made by many Western analysts. However, it is only now that the West has shown in practice, through a series of political and economic decisions, that ChinaТs dreams of leadership have found firm ground under their feet. What is going on? Let's see.
The short answer is: capitalism happens. Countries that have ceased squeezing the last juices from their citizens (and even started УfeedingФ these citizens, creating the Уmiddle classФ of them), gradually cease to play a key role in the real economy. And the former УcoloniesФ, explicit and hidden, leave for the sweat and blood of their inhabitants in the first place. Until a certain moment, all the incomes of conditional China go to the "metropolis", but then - the established industry, infrastructure, science, etc., begin to work in the pocket of local businessmen. The standard of living of an ordinary Chinese is growing, and now Chinese business is looking for new markets and new labor.
At this point, the conventional Donald Trump is offended by telling the world (for example, at the UN General Assembly) that, de, earlier, when the USA was big and strong, they opened their economies to other countries (and demanded the same in return), actively traded and invested . To which foreigners who did not know their happiness responded, as far as they could, with restrictive measures: duties, taxes, bureaucratic chicheness. Now, when China became big and strong, it began to abuse free trade, fill American markets with its cheap goods, etc., to which the USA had to respond ... with the same restrictions.
Already, China has become a young and successful version of North America. So, researchers from Oxfam report that, on the one hand, China caught up with the United States in terms of property stratification within the country, and in 2012, 22% of the wealth of the United States was concentrated in the hands of 0.1% of the population. However, at the same time, it is at the expense of China that the number of beggars in the world is reducing. The PRC leadership is happy to say that they managed to grow a generation of УnationalФ millionaires, and although the minimum wage in China is still 2 times less than the subsistence minimum, and citizens out of poverty cannot save anything ... The life of an average Chinese still getting better. Not in the European sense, but at least in Chinese.
In other words, the powers that be in China can already УfeedФ their fellow citizens (not so much and it is necessary - to bring people out of complete poverty) and still have to build up a Уsocial sphereФ to motivate people to work and maintain leadership in the escalating confrontation with the West.
You can Уwrite offФ the social policy of the People's Republic of China on the Уlove of socialismФ, but it is impossible not to notice that the Chinese leadership is already laying the foundation for the opposition to its own population, which is characteristic of capitalism. The Communist Party even refused to formally replace the power, endorsing Xi Jinping's lifelong rule. In some areas, the digital control system over people, with ratings of social and political loyalty, is already acting like a dystopia. In particular, according to a number of УliberalФ journalists, its Уrun-inФ began on the most УrestlessФ citizens - the Uigurs. And the system does not act as a kind of УregulatorФ of public life, but simply as a repressive measure against regions prone to separatism.
By the way, the loudest dystopias - "1984" and "Animal Farm" by Orwell, "Brave New World" by Huxley - are already banned. Ironically: contrary to the prevailing opinion in the West, these authors described the future of the capitalist system, and not of socialism. Pedantic Chinese did not spare even formal moments: as a result of the rapid development of political-economic theory, Chinese Marxist scholars came to the conclusion that the Уclass struggleФ ... not that it was outdated Ч no. It is just that the Уclass struggleФ needs to be temporarily moved to the second or third place in the list of national priorities, and the first one to put forward Уeconomic developmentФ. How is this УbourgeoisФ: barter citizenship and readiness to fight with the people for the promises of increased consumption and miraculous reconciliation of the tiger with the lamb.
However, not only in domestic politics, China behaves like a capitalist (booming) (or, as Lenin would have corrected, imperialist) state. The acute reaction of the USA and Europe of the last year or two was caused by a real explosion of Chinese economic expansion. Thus, according to the Institute of American Entrepreneurship (AEI), if in 2015 China invested only $ 14.6 billion in investments in the United States (not counting bonds), then in 2016 this figure soared to 53.9 billion. Moreover, an important place in these investments, along with real estate, finance and transport, took the field of technology. Naturally, China did not decide to help the dollar American science - he just decided to buy some technology and research companies.
The first reaction came from the administration of the УliberalФ and УglobalistФ Barack Obama: for example, the ChineseТs attempt to buy out the German company Aixtron at the end of 2016 was blocked both by the German authorities (still indirectly through endless checks of the transaction) and by the US leadership. Directly, the Germans spoke now, in 2018, when Angela Merkel forbade the sale of small company Leifeld Metal Spinning to China, citing the needs of "national security." At the same time, a discussion of the introduction of new restrictive measures against foreign business began in Berlin. French politicians fear for developments in the field of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, robotics, and in general for intellectual property. The UK has announced the preparation of new measures to protect key industries. In the United States, they raised the topic of the inadmissibility of Chinese buying up American technologies, including putting pressure on American companies through the courts, antitrust authorities, etc.
That is what Deng Xiaoping prophesied as early as 1984, saying that China would partially open access to its market only in exchange for advanced foreign technologies. However, now, according to UNESCO, the Chinese, and so on the size of investments in the development of science and technology in the world are second only to the United States.
ChinaТs УinvestmentФ in the United States dropped sharply with TrumpТs arrival and the exacerbation of a Уtrade warФ between these two powers that claim to be a world leader. Of course, since 2005, the main Chinese investments were not in the United States (about 177 billion dollars in the period 2005Ц2018), but in Europe (360 billion in the same period). This does not mean that China wanted to УoutbidФ the European allies of the United States: after all, the mutual investments of Europe and the United States over the same period were an order of magnitude greater, about 4 trillion dollars. However, according to the MERICS Institute, ChinaТs total investments in Europe have already caught up with EuropeТs investments in China in the 2000s. In other words, in relation to the Europeans, the Chinese have already ceased to be just a big УfactoryФ, working hands for Western capitals. With the current trend, on the contrary, it is the Europeans who will soon start working for Chinese money.
The problems do not end there. If you believe the reports of Western analysts (for example, from EUCAM), then the European Union (no less capitalistically УdyingФ than the US) should begin to sound the alarm about its influence in the rest of the world. So, China is actively establishing contacts in Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe. According to AEI, the Chinese from 2005Ц2018 invested about 475 billion dollars in Asian countries (including Kazakhstan, etc.), 298 billion dollars in sub-Saharan Africa, 173 billion more in Arab countries and North Africa. Moreover, in the Asian and African regions considerable money is invested in construction, primarily in the field of energy and minerals. In a report for 2018, the AEI analyst concludes that Chinese capital has not simply reached a truly global level - it has literally encompassed all the continents and regions, even those that are usually overlooked by transnational corporations.
In short, China already now feels great in the role of a world imperialist power. He already Уbit offФ, as he could, his direct competitors - the United States and Europe closely associated with them. He has already emerged from the role of simply Уworld factoryФ, and in practice has shown that he is ready for world economic expansion. He is already standing behind the direct, one might even say УmilitaryФ, opponents of the United States, like Iran, constantly looming over Russia's anti-Western foreign policy, etc. He already has noticeable achievements in the field of domestic policy: at the same time in the Уsocial sphereФ, and in terms of ensuring the rule of elites.
American imperialism must be expelled from South Vietnam! Chinese poster. 1960Ц1970s
While the issue of primacy has not yet been resolved, while there is a struggle for the redivision of the world, with all the terrible УcostsФ in the form of local УhotФ conflicts and УcoldФ trade wars, Russia and other Уnot firstФ countries play a role. At the same time, the aggression of major players is directed more at each other than at the Уrest of the worldФ. There is less and less time for Russia to take part in the redistribution of markets, to integrate into Chinese globalization - or, perhaps, to implement some other, completely different project. The attachment of elites to the West and the isolation of people from politics does not help much in this. We find ourselves in the position of passive observers of the new Уrevolution of imperialismФ - or the victims of the slaughter in the world political game. And the victory and defeat (which can not do without a lot of blood) of China does not promise us anything good. Time is working against Russia, but to do something in this situation, or to wait and hope for a miracle - decide, as always, only for ourselves.
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