Posted by: 5-02-2019, 15:15

Trump's era can last 30 years Financial Times

The FT reviewer considers it very likely that in the future, historians will view the events of 2016 as the beginning of a new cycle in world history.

Trump's era can last 30 years  Financial Times

How long it will be going on? After the political upheavals of 2016  the British vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump by America  analysts argued whether this was just a temporary aberration or the beginning of a new era. It is too early to make predictions, but it already seems very likely that in the future, historians will view the events of 2016 as the beginning of a new cycle in world history, writes Financial Times columnist Gideon Rahman.

The bad news for suffering liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time  an average of 30 years. Over the years since Brexit and Trumps election, the global populist movement has gained momentum. The fact that Trump despises most of the Western establishment and media can distract attention from this fact. But the US president has many fans, some of whom run governments around the world. Zhair Bolsonaru, the new president of Brazil  the largest country in Latin America, is an open fan of Trump. In the Middle East, the governments of Saudi Arabia and Israel prefer Trump to his predecessor Barack Obama. His fan club also extends to Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are ideologically closer to Trump's White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the Deputy Prime Minister of Italy (and the most influential person in the country), also considers Trump to be a role model.

The Brexit catastrophe means that currently there are several other European populist parties that are conducting a campaign to leave the EU. But the momentum against the establishment, which led to the Brexit vote, is still gaining momentum in Europe. This found expression in a variety of forms, from the movement of yellow vests in France to the emergence of the party Alternative for Germany, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.

The precedent precedent shows that if the populist era prevails, it can last up to three decades. All efforts to periodize history are slightly artificial. But in post-war Western politics two different epochs can be distinguished, each of which lasted about 30 years. The period from 1945 to 1975, known as the Glorious Thirty Years in France, was characterized by strong economic growth in the West, along with the construction of social states and the Keynesian economy  all this took place against the backdrop of the Cold War.

By the mid-1970s, this model encountered problems in the Anglo-American world: Britain suffered from stagflation, and President Jimmy Carter diagnosed a national ailment in the United States. A new era (often referred to by critics as neoliberal) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in the UK, followed by the election of Ronald Reagan in the United States in 1980. It was also part of the global shift.

In 1978, Deng Xiaoping took power in China and initiated a market reform and opening up policy. Communism in Europe began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. Formed the foundations of a globalized capitalist economy. This neoliberal era also lasted about 30 years, until it was discredited by the 2008 global financial crisis. As in the case of the end of the Glorious Thirty Years, it took several years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. It happened in 2016, with Trump's election and Brexit vote.

But why should cycles in modern history last about 30 years? One possible explanation is that successful ideologies and the political movements they engender go through a cycle of imitation followed by adaptation. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find followers around the world. This sense of ideological impulse creates a demand for original ideas underlying the movement that will move further and faster. And this leads to the active phase of the cycle.

The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking a cue from Trump suggests that the cycle of imitation is in full swing. Politicians like Victor Orban, Salvini and Bolsonar are now imitating Trumps rhetoric  they condemn globalism, they accuse the media of spreading false news, they scoff at politically correct, and they despise international organizations that are trying to solve problems like climate change or crisis. Of refugees. The rapid spread of this new political style can only be the beginning of a new era that will last for decades.

But liberals should take into account one feature of this system. If the period of imitation and intensification continues, the populist movement will not have enough just to win the election. The glorious thirtieth birthday was recognized as glorious because the standard of living rose markedly throughout the Western world. Similarly, the Reagan-Thatcher era is associated with renewed economic growth and victory in the Cold War.

In contrast, Brexit faces major challenges, and the Trump administration is chaotic. If populists fail to produce tangible results, their new era may still die in its infancy.

Earlier it was reported that prosecutors in the United States plans to check the cost of Trump's inauguration. The task of the anti-corruption investigators will be to clarify the nature of the funds raised for the inauguration.
dle 10.4

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