Posted by: 2-02-2019, 12:22
China and the United States have not agreed on anything
Photo: pixfly / shutterstock.com
It is amazing how much a significant part of the international commentary and the media community as a whole would like to believe that one can return to the well-fed, warm, understood 2000s, when the «end of history” was self-evident, although not too close future.
When the transcript of the meeting between the President of the United States and the Vice Prime Minister of China appeared on the White House website, the media space shuddered in another paroxysm of optimism, having read that „the Chinese government intends to conclude a trade agreement with the United States.“ Yes, Vice Premier of the State Council of China Liu He really outlined such an intention, and Trump stressed the presence of progress in the negotiations, but you need to suffer at the same time blindness and amnesia to believe that the trade war will end there and that the «Fukidida trap”, which now The United States and China, suddenly magically cease to exist.
It is indicative that the level of optimism that a particular analytical structure or the media demonstrates regarding the Trump administration’s negotiations with State Council representatives is inversely proportional to the level of its economic specialization, that is, the better columnists and experts understand economics, the less they have hopes that the agreement can be achieved, and the fact that the agreement will not be just a truce before the next round of war. This skepticism is fully justified primarily because no progress has been made on the two key issues of the US-China conflict.
According to analysts of the Financial Times, China is fundamentally unwilling to cancel its government programs to stimulate the economy, which allow Chinese companies to compete effectively with US companies, especially in the field of high technologies. Americans continue to insist on addressing the issue of mass industrial espionage, as well as forcing US companies to transfer technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market.
Against the background of these two issues of principle, any agreements on China buying some volumes of soybeans or American oil to correct the trade balance between the countries are just trifles to divert the attention of not very smart journalists and experts. The question stands out: if the US is trying to achieve what they want from China, then its technology companies are turning into assembly shops for American corporations and leaving the world market, and the Chinese economy itself is going into a deep crisis. If the United States does not achieve its goal, then in a few years they will finally lose their technological and economic advantages and, consequently, their last hopes for the preservation of world hegemony.
This issue is not negotiable.
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