In the United States started the presidential election: who is against Trump





On expectations and possible surprises of the US elections

In the United States started the presidential election: who is against Trump

Photo: AFP


Despite the fact that until the US presidential election remains as much as a half years, the election campaign in the United States has already begun. The first candidates have been nominated  so far for the party primaries. On the pages of newspapers spilled the first scandals  as usual, sex. The site Today tried to figure out who in the fall of 2020 will be able to compete with the current president, Donald Trump. And will Trump himself go for a second term?



Elizabeth Warren. First bold


On December 31, right on the eve of the New Year, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts and one of the most implacable critics of Trump Elizabeth Warren announced her desire to fight for the presidency of the United States and to establish a committee to consider the possibility of her nomination. Warren was not the first representative of the US Democratic Party, who announced her intention to participate in the elections, but the first to do it officially, with the help of a video message. And also the first to have certain chances to overcome the internal struggle sieve and get to the home stretch as a Democratic candidate.

Trump responded to Warren's nomination in a howl style. Answering the question whether she has a chance to win the current president, literally the following: I dont know, you need to ask her psychiatrist.








However, to ask in this case, you need, rather, other people. Namely  Warren party members, who also have views of the presidency. And possessing, moreover, more significant chances for him to fight in the final. The struggle among Democrats for the opportunity to make Trump the competition ahead is serious.



Joe Biden. Hope of the Democrats


As all recent sociological polls show, former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden and left-wing Democrat Bernie Sanders are the favorites for the Democrats' primaries. Joe Biden, as the closest ally of President Obama, was seriously considered by Democrats as the successor to the popular black president in the United States. However, the game was interrupted by Hillary Clinton, who had long and stubbornly put together a coalition from various party groups. As a result, in order not to destroy the party unity, Biden refused to advance even for the primaries. Today, according to various polls, he has support at the level from 23% to 45%. This is the highest level of support demonstrated by Democratic candidates for today. However, Biden has not yet officially announced the decision to participate in the elections, although he promised to do this in the middle of January. The American media, meanwhile, writes that, in addition to Joe Biden, his brother Frank can participate in the elections.

Many people believe that Biden worked well, but he was always a one percent protester. He ran for two or three times, but never gained more than one percent. And then Obama came, pulled him out of the garbage heap and made vice president. Now Biden  figure ,  commented on a possible rival Donald Trump.



Bernie Sanders. Mirror for Trump


In second place in popularity among Democrats today is the democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. Unlike Biden, Sanders, who professes left-wing views, went to the 2016 primaries, until the last time he fought with Hillary Clinton for the right to run for the elections from the Democrats. But in the end gave way and supported Clinton.

Sanders was then supported by many trade unions, congressmen, and governors. Today, its rating ranges from 10% to 20%. Democratic Socialist Sanders, who is one of the old-timers of American politics, may well shake old times. Moreover, many of the slogans proclaimed by him are somewhere consonant with the slogans with which Trump took a certain part of his electorate. But not everything is so simple.

Both Biden and Sanders will find it very difficult to fight Trump. Because the current US president will always appeal to the fact that they are representatives of the old oligarchy. Which he, Trump, almost defeated, broke the backbone, but the old elite is eager for revenge. I think that under the slogan of protecting America from revenge, he will go to the elections of 2020, Peter Burkovsky, head of the Center for Problems of the Russian Federation of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, expressed his opinion on the site.

According to the expert, the answer to the question of who ultimately will go from the Democrats to the elections, also strongly depends on which side the sympathies of various electoral groups turn to.



Kamala Harris. Real threat


This question is very important. Not so long ago, Nathaniel Silver, editor of the influential analytical resource at fivethirtyeight.com, published an article entitled Why Harris and O'Rourke Can Have More Than Sanders and Biden. Briefly, the analyst describes the chances of potential Democratic presidential candidates to win the primaries based on their ability to consolidate at least three of the five key groups of voters (loyalists, leftists, milians, blacks and Latin Americans) in the main states.

For example, stating the highest rating of Biden, the analyst notes that, having the support of loyalists and black people today, the ex-vice-president has exhausted the electoral resource.

At the same time, fivethirtyeight.com gives its own rating of Democratic candidates  based on their ability to enlist the support of major groups of voters.

In the first place of this rating is California senator Kamala Harris, who many in the US consider to be Trump's most dangerous rival. Sociological polls show a rating of Harris at the level of 5-9%. But, according to fivethirtyeight.com, it is for her the most opportunities to consolidate the electorate.

The only dark-skinned woman senator, also very sympathetic and open, the former Attorney General, a fiery speaker Harris is indeed seen by many nostalgic Americans as an alternative to Trump, a kind of Obama in a skirt.

Harris announced her nomination on January 21. And literally, the first scandal followed. The former mayor of San Francisco, 84-year-old Willy Brown, wrote in his column at the San Francisco Chronicle about his relationship with Harris, which happened a few decades ago. Moreover, Brown directly hinted that Harris contributed to this career after that. It is difficult to say what the aged politician was guided by, compromising the new presidential candidate. But you can definitely say that now Harris will not be easy: if sex with a leader in the US can still be swallowed, then career growth based on sex is a serious accusation and reputational blow. Whether to cope with him Harris, time will tell.



Other democratic army


In general, the rating from fivethirtyeight.com is as follows. In second place after potential, Kamala Harris is followed by a member of the House of Representatives from Texas Beto O'Rourke. According to analysts, O'Rourke has significant chances to consolidate the votes of loyalists, or eternal democrats, millenials and Latin Americans. Note that according to opinion polls at O'Rourke today 3-6% of the vote. Next comes New Jersey Senator Corey Booker (blacks, millenials, loyalists, opinion poll rating 48%), Ohio senator Sherrod Brown (leftists, loyalists, rating 2-4%). The closes the five ex-Minister of Development and Construction in the Obama office Julian Castro (Latin Americans did not appear in opinion polls).

Only in the next five of fivethirtyeight.com appear already mentioned rating Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Corrie Sanders.

At the same time, analysts at fivethirtyeight.com do not consider at all some candidates who have certain chances to fight for victory in the primaries if they are nominated. Like, for example, the ex-mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg (rating 2-8%). Or Hillary Clinton.



Hillary Clinton. Ghostly chance for satisfaction


Clinton-Trumps remix of the Democrats has long been hinted at by Democrats. The closer to the nomination of candidates for the primaries  the louder. For example, talked about this last fall. Hints were made in January 2019 as well. True, information proceeded, as a rule, not even from the second, but from the third hands. Hillary herself was silent; she is still silent.

So will Clinton go to the polls or not? On the one hand, opinion polls demonstrate that it has a significant base core  at the level of 10-13%. Among the potential Democratic candidates today is the third ranking after Biden and Sanders.

But on the other hand, no matter how sad it was to realize, the Americans do not want Clinton to return. Thus, the Harvard-Harris poll, conducted in mid-January, showed that only a third of the respondents were in favor of Clinton again fighting for the presidency. 70% against. Skeptical about the prospects Clinton and observers.

For Clinton there are certain interests of her sponsors. And they just nominate a political pensioner for certain trades with favorites for the race for positions in the new administration. Clinton can be a fiery speaker, VIP agitator, she has a certain core of the electorate  quite a big one that will be her support always. The voices of these voters will be important for the favorite of the race. I dont think that she has chances for primaries, but she can be a VIP agitator. bring Trump to defeat ,  said Peter Burkovsky.




Jeff Bezos. Non-systemic alternative?


However, as already noted, a certain amount of skepticism also deserves a chance to consolidate around itself the anti-tramp electorate and other traditional politicians. According to Peter Burkovsky, future elections in the United States are quite capable of presenting surprises, which few people suspect today.

We need to look at unexpected figures. Absolutely quite unexpected figures, which are just not being discussed today, notes Peter Burkovsky.

According to him, Trump showed that it is possible to win elections without having a political management experience. And his victory can attract to the American policy people with systemic thinking who built billions of dollars in businesses in the United States and who, very importantly, have become a symbol of resistance to Trump, the expert believes.

One of the first to fall under this description is Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon. He bought The Washington Post under Obama and saved the publishing house from bankruptcy. And he became one of Trumps key enemies. New headquarters of the company. Bezos opened them, attention, in New York and in Maryland, on the border with Washington. It seems to me that this is a claim that he will take part in the elections. And in this case, he can be very Trump's serious non-systemic opponent. the consolidates and Democrats, and some Republicans It is my guess, but it might be in American history such surprises have been, for example, Theodore Roosevelt -the told Peter Burkovsky.




Donald Trump. Objective reality


And what about the Republicans? And Trump himself? So far, nothing says that the current president is ready to give up the fight for a second term. As no one in the camp of the Republican Party claims to challenge his primacy  despite the fact that there are many dissatisfied with the presidents actions among the Republicans.

Perhaps the party is silent because, despite ambiguous non-systemic actions, Trump's rating continues to be high. According to various opinion polls  from 64% to 72%. The nearest persecutor among the Republicans  Mitt Romney  has, according to the most optimistic estimates, 19%. And this is a serious argument for Republicans, clinging teeth, trying to work constructively with Trump. However, it cannot be excluded that Trumps rating is so high because Republicans simply do not put forward an alternative to the current president.

The answer to the question whether Trump will be nominated or not, and whether the full support of Republicans will largely depend not on Trump and not on the Republicans. And from a guy named Robert Muller, the ex-director of the FBI, and now the special prosecutor investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election.

So far, no one among the Republicans is against the president. But, in general, the American policy is very cynical, this is the policy of backroom agreements. I think the Republican perseverance and their support for Trump very much depend on what Mullers investigation reveals if the special prosecutor can find the lethal ones data. If Trump becomes toxic for the party, they will try to isolate him, as Nixon was isolated in his time, notes Peter Burkovsky.


In this case, the Republican Party will have to shake off the dust from the old proven personnel, like the same Romney, Ted Cruz or John Caseyk. However (American analysts are talking about it), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has a much better chance of picking Trump's electorate.
dle 10.4

Author: Admin
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