Posted by: 10-11-2018, 07:52
China may provoke a global economic crisis
In Beijing, with fear, they are waiting for a new increase in tariffs for Chinese goods promised by Trump.
There is no guarantee that China will survive a trade war with the United States. The country's economic problems can be considerably complicated if the American president fulfills his promise and at the end of December raises tariffs to 25 percent for Chinese imports worth $ 200 billion. Here the further cheapening of the national currency will not help.
China today is faced with the problem of monstrous debt. The total debt in the Chinese financial system is several times larger than the entire Chinese economy.
Huge loans are taken for projects that do not pay off, entire cities stand empty, and expensive real estate is not sold in the new quarters of Beijing. In the malls of the capital, almost no buyers are visible, everything is too expensive. Provincial governments and state-owned companies will not be able to survive without further infusion of cheap loans.
As American economists have noted, the Chinese government is trying in every way to avoid a situation where massive bankruptcies and public unrest will begin when overlapping credit lines.
China needs high enough economic growth to provide jobs for a growing population. But already in a number of regions unemployment is beginning to increase.
For this year, the yuan was devalued by 9 percent against the dollar, the country is threatened by increased capital outflows. The collapse of the Chinese economy, which at the end of the year could cause Trump, will hit Asia hard and shake Europe.
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