Posted by: 21-01-2019, 02:12
France in anticipation of civil war?
Will the power and Protestants in France be able to reach an agreement without shooting?
When under pressure from the protests of the «yellow vests” Emmanuel Macron agreed to raise some social benefits, it seemed funny, but definitely fatal to him. The street crowd is always irrational, its desires, as a rule, strongly dominate the real possibilities and available resources.
Tom is a clear example of a manifesto of 25 points, in early December last year, which appeared in the French press. His obvious practical impracticability made the position of the leader of the Fifth Republic hopeless, and the protests that flared up with a new force after the end of the New Year holidays convincingly proved that the matter will not subside. Too much in the society has accumulated discontent. He urgently needed to be disposed of, and Macron suddenly thought of how.
On Sunday, January 13, the French president addressed the nation with an open letter. At first, he too was taken skeptically, as a manifestation of even greater weakness. The man, on whom, for the third month in a row, all fought, the people on the streets, the press, economic and political commentators suddenly suggested to France to «sit down and talk”.
He put three dozen fundamental questions on the agenda, thematically divided into three basic groups: taxes, country and migrants. Every citizen of the country can not just speak out on them, but suggest specific ways and solutions. For example, what taxes and how should be changed. What social programs to introduce and how to finance them. What to do to reduce corruption and specifically — with corrupt. However, the points listed in the letter are not limited to the case. The head of the Fifth Republic immediately emphasized the fundamental absence of prohibited topics or uncomfortable questions.
And this was a strong move, not only giving a way out of the already almost impasse, but also seriously raising the stakes in the whole game. From the sixteenth and the next two months, the country really sat down for deliberation. In each department, in each locality, the collection of proposals and their primary discussion on the ground are organized with the aim of forming a clear agenda that will continue to be hierarchical in order to eventually form a national one. Which further the state will discuss and turn, as promised, into a national program of economic and political transformations.
In other words, Macron, who until recently was considered by many critics to be a simple empty passing artificial figure, decided on a step that turned out to be inaccessible to no other European, and, in general, world political leader. For the first time, probably for a whole century, there was a person who suggested re-signing the social contract between the state and society, which is the main imperative of every society.
Thus, now France is actually preparing to retake the social maturity exam. The crisis of globalism revealed a serious problem not even in terms of the state or economic policy of the state, it showed visible signs of the destruction of the foundations of society itself as a whole at the fundamental level of basic attitudes, values and world perception.
For example, when ordinary citizens face an increase in crime caused by an influx of migrants, a shortage of money for social programs against the background of increased payments to «refugees from the Middle East”, and the government and political party leaders continue to insist on the need to expand migration «because there is no one to work”.
A great many such contradictions have accumulated, from the expediency of maintaining EU membership to refusing to participate in NATO and creating an all-European army independent of Washington. But the basis of everything is the lack of clarity in understanding — what is France in general? What does her people want, and how exactly does he think it is necessary to achieve this?
It should be noted that with such a step Macron realized a dream that was very popular in recent years in the world. Governments and states today are most often accused of being isolated from the needs and aspirations of the people, in deafness to their needs and indifference to their views. Now, if the state would listen to the people, then …
This is what Macron has now proposed to do to the French. Instead of a street riot, propose a concrete approach that could be translated into actual steps and decisions. Even if not everything, he said this in an open letter too. But the main thing is for the parties to hear and understand each other, synchronize their positions and, so to speak, decide on the basic principles.
And from this moment begins the most important thing, which is just the component of the nation’s test for social maturity. Current street protests seem to have subsided. The leader of France now travels around the regions, meets with the heads of local administrations, agitates for their maximum activity in organizing and conducting the process. The number of reports from popular assemblies is growing. But what will come of all this is today the most serious question, which is of key importance not only for France, but also, perhaps, for the whole European Union, and even the Western Civilization as a whole.
Between the expression of indignation, a demonstration of discontent and the ability to articulate an alternative clearly, there is usually a large distance. It is not yet clear whether the nation will be able to adequately correlate its own wishes with real objective possibilities. And can she take responsibility for the result? After all, usually everyone loves only to demand and criticize, but they never recognize themselves as consequences in the answer. While the matter is limited to comments on the Internet and the hysterics of an areal crowd, irresponsibility slips freely, but now it is a question of making specific management decisions, where certain consequences are inevitable.
However, the issue of the ability of the mechanism of a state to make a popular request then productively implement the national program becomes equally important. Many of the current problems are caused by the inertia and isolation of the clan of the ruling bureaucracy, multiplied by the completely eleven views of many social groups of society that have lost their solidarity. If the people are able to agree on the conditions, and the state refuses to accept them, then the matter may not be limited to «a repetition of 1968”.
Here the question is much broader. With this step, Macron knocks stools out from under the feet of almost all of his political opponents from both flanks. If a nation clearly articulates a new composition of the social contract and concludes it with the state in the person of its current head, for at least a couple of years, then any political struggle with it will become futile. He will become a direct spokesman for the interests of the people, depriving any parties of their political platforms, and most importantly — electoral support.
It was during Marx’s time that the parties served to express the interests of social groups that were formed in one way or another, most often of a territorial or property nature. Party of peasants. Party of port workers. A party of weavers. Party latifundistov. Changes that occurred as capitalism developed itself were destroyed by past foundations. Today, parties mostly sell ideas, most often based on abstract justice, promising voters to protect them better than other competitors. At the same time, the ideas themselves differ little from each other.
In France, a serious paradox arose. The slogans and goals declared by the allegedly radical right-wing nationalist party Le Pen (now called «National Unification”) are very close in the meaning of most of the points, and even directly coincide with the position of the ultra-left «European Social Democrat” Jean-Luc Melenchon, who theoretically stands just the opposite of the conceptual political flank.
Thus, political differences turn into a purely external attribute, since absolutely everyone simply wants «good to all the people of the country and to protect those who need it most”. As a rule, appealing to the needs of the poorest and weakest. If successful, their most important defender will be Macron, thereby receiving overwhelming electoral support.
What is remarkable, not only within the borders of France. In the European Union, there has been a growing shortage of the charismatic «right leader, able to disperse all this swamp and finally bring order so that people can live well.” Almost all the nations of the EU countries demand this from the ruling elites. More recently, such a figure they slipped Angela Merkel. But now she is «already everything”, and the German ruling elite cannot offer anyone even close in her abilities to replace her. All three called candidates have quite good resumes, but, in fact, they are completely colorless. The British are falling away too.
This creates a unique outlook for the French leader. If not in the whole EU, then in the «old Europe” for sure. Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and so are an integral part of the «French economic cluster”. In other words, the French shadow largely falls on their political field. A strong leader of France will gradually become their leader too. And Brexit has created serious uncertainty for Europe. And then there are the Poles with their claims of hegemony in muddy water. And then there are the negative economic consequences of aggravating tensions with the United States in the political and financial field. Which greatly increases the demand for a leader.
Thus, Macron really can be the «second Napoleon”. But only in case of successful re-signing of the social contract with the French nation. Otherwise, the storm of events has every chance to wash away not only Macron personally, but also the entire Fifth Republic as a whole.
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