Posted by: 19-01-2019, 13:25
Opposition against Trump
The events of recent weeks have demonstrated to the world another new turn in the policy of the US President. Donald Trump announced the possibility of withdrawing American troops from a number of countries where they had been stationed earlier.
As you know, at the moment, the North American military contingents outside the permanent bases are in 7 countries with unstable political situation, and the current (so far) American president said that at least two of them should withdraw American troops. Recall that D. Trump, firm and unpredictable in his decisions, unexpectedly announced his victory over jihadists in Syria and the withdrawal of 2,000 soldiers from there, and also adopted a plan for the phased withdrawal of 7,000 American troops from Afghanistan. With unshakable confidence, the US president declared that «the American forces will return home under the banner of victory.”
Of course, one of the factors of his own election victory is that American society is seriously tired of endless local wars, which have no end to it. The US voters are seriously disappointed with foreign policy, which is tied to the interests of the Pentagon and lobbyists from the military-industrial complex, and at the same time has neither a clear image of the enemy, nor the exact criteria of victory.
Trump’s huge share of voters who believed his promises is made up of citizens for whom he (almost for the first time in American history) stated that the United States must abandon the role of world gendarme and stop interfering in the affairs of countries outside of American continent. And, interestingly, opinion polls conducted in this country, fully confirm his rightness, and he is supported by the majority of ordinary citizens, and the majority of the military. In particular, a recent opinion poll showed that among former and current US military personnel, 56% consistently support D. Trump’s decisions, including the latter, regarding the withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan.
Moreover, the recent Christmas meetings of the president with the US military at bases in the Middle East, which he made impromptu, confirm the significant support of his decisions by ordinary soldiers and seamen, who met with the absolute sincere joy of their commander in chief even after the news of the resignation of the highly respected minister in the army US Defense. Note that James Mathis was an absolute opponent of the withdrawal of American troops and a well-known supporter of the concept, the essence of which can be expressed by paraphrasing the dictum of one of the Russian tars: where the American flag was ever raised, it should never be lowered again.
Are jihadist associations defeated in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, as the American president broadcasts? Any sane person, more or less versed in the situation, it is clear that no. In the same Syria and Iraq, the number of some «igilovtsev” is still estimated from 10-12 to 20-30 thousand (as the militants, and their active supporters). The Taliban in Afghanistan, not to mention the IG, permanently control from one third to one half of the territory of the country's regions and not only do not intend to capitulate, but, on the contrary, achieved the actual recognition of themselves not as terrorists, but as a belligerent negotiable party.
And, accordingly, the main opponents of D. Trump’s decision on the withdrawal of troops are, on the one hand, representatives of the American political establishment, and on the other, the majority of the American officer corps (especially its «top”).
These people clearly understand that in Syria the departure of the Americans will be the collapse of their policies that they have been conducting there from 2011-2014, although it’s ridiculous to talk about the revival of the jihad caliphate there with the presence of the armed forces of Russia, Iran and Turkey. Although the possible withdrawal of Americans from Iraq may well lead to a partial revival of IS in this country. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan (and even more so the evacuation of the entire NATO contingent from this country) will be a complete analogue of the process of establishing the Sharia power of extremists, which followed the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the territory of this state.
Of course, the American officer corps was caught off guard by Trump’s decision, and in fact, after Mattis’s resignation, one can speak of the beginning of the formation of a military opposition to the US President. However, the decision of the highest official in the state must be carried out rigorously, and the officers and generals of the US Army, although much wincing, but still actively working on plans for the withdrawal of troops, to the great joy of ordinary soldiers and a significant proportion of American inhabitants.
True, the opposition to the US president in the officer corps is not idle: these people have already prepared lawsuits to declare illegal both D. Trump’s decision about the resignation of the US Secretary of Defense and about the withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan. The fact is that both the decision to remove Mathis and the decision to withdraw contingents were not communicated through official channels, as required by the regulations, but were simply written by the president on Twitter. Moreover, in the process of preparing such serious decrees, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the National Security Council, etc., usually take part, and this was not done, contrary to the official procedure.
Of course, it is impossible (at least for now) in the United States to talk about the possibility of a military coup, supported by the majority or a significant part of the political elite, but Trump’s power is so wobbly due to the efforts of the Democratic Party. After all, objectively speaking, the decisions of the current US president are in complete contradiction with the policies of Washington in recent years.
In particular, the US withdrawal from Syria will untie the hands of America’s geopolitical opponents in the region, which are Russia and Iran. The deprivation of Kurdish forces of the «SDF” alliance of American support will have the same significance, which will ensure the growth of Turkish domination in the Middle East, as well as demonstrate to the Washington allies around the world the destruction of the consequences of alliances with such an unstable geopolitical leader.
Moreover, the quick and unexpected withdrawal of the US from the Middle East with the destruction of the system of checks and balances will clearly weaken the position of American allies such as Israel and Jordan, which will force these countries to look for other, more reliable strategic partners.
And clearly based on the above arguments, the opposition to the Trump among the military and politicians has so far achieved a change in terms of the withdrawal of troops from the initial 30 days to 4 months with the possibility of prolongation. As a result, not even just a colleague, but an associate of the US president, chief national security adviser John Bolton was forced to declare that the American troops would remain in Syria until the main groups of jihadists were finally destroyed. He also said that the second condition for the withdrawal of American troops is Turkey’s provision of firm guarantees of non-aggression against the Kurdish contingents on Syrian territory.
However, American troops have only been in Syria for 5 years (since 2014), while in Afghanistan, the war with their direct participation has been going on for 18 years (since 2001), and the US’s withdrawal from the longest conflict in their history will be much more difficult and, probably, destructive in consequences. In the immediate perspective, this decision is likely to lead to the disruption of the already extremely difficult negotiations on a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan with the participation of the Taliban.
At the same time, in the perception of American society, the departure of the Pentagon from this country is an undoubted boon — it will stop entering the US, albeit a small but steady stream of dead and wounded, and also close one of the «black holes” in military spending.
However, the military-industrial corporations, of course, are against such a decision, since the departure of the Americans from Afghanistan will reduce the need for supplies and reduce their profits. In addition, many American veterans of the Afghan war, and both among the officers and ordinary soldiers, unlike Syria, are sharply negatively opposed to the withdrawal of their contingent from Afghanistan. They consider the departure from this country a betrayal of the memory of their comrades who died there, and the government’s refusal to recognize the relevance and importance of the mission of the American military in this country.
Yes, many of them support the idea that we should finally end this unpopular war, but we should not finish it the way the Soviet contingent ended up there, and end the US Afghan mission with a victory.
According to opinion polls, a significant proportion of US troops, both on active duty and retired, do not recognize the presence of their contingent in Afghanistan as an «unnecessary war.” On the contrary, they believe that the introduction of US troops there and their 18-year stay on the territory of Afghanistan is the right decision, which made it possible, if not completely destroyed, to break the power of Al-Qaida * and other jihadist associations, to avenge September 11, 2001, and «To bring peace and democratic values to the Afghan people”.
However, most of the American servicemen still need to end this war, but «end with honor”, «coming out with a victory, completely destroying the forces hostile to America and its allies”.
Most of the current and former US military see the meaning of continuing the US mission in Afghanistan in the following concept, voiced in September 2018 by Brigadier General Roger Turner, the former commander of the southwestern sector of this country: «By staying here, we impede the growth of jihadist and the return to the situation 11 September; figuratively speaking, we are making a rather shitty situation much less shitty”.
Undoubtedly, the last few years, long before D. Trump's decree on the commencement of the withdrawal of troops, the Pentagon’s leadership was looking for and seeking plans for a military-political solution to the Afghan issue. It is known that various concepts were accepted for consideration: from the transfer of control over the security of Afghanistan to US allies in NATO to the almost complete replacement of the official Pentagon contingent by a contingent of mercenaries of American PMS.
However, the US president has so far chosen the most radical option, stating that «the stronger the own security forces of the government of Afghanistan become, the better, the less work we will have. Afghans must finally completely ensure their own security and begin to build the future of their country on their own. And we really want them to succeed. ”
It is necessary to note the loyalty of the following words of the American president: «I share the disappointment of the majority of my fellow citizens about the erroneous vector of our state’s foreign policy in previous years. At that time, past administrations spent too much time, money, and most importantly, the lives of American soldiers, trying to restore distant from us both geographically and according to our country’s mentality, instead of focusing on our own national security and the welfare of our own citizens, and not being guided by any other considerations, to get involved in conflicts on the other half of the globe. ”
Of course, D. Trump has always stated that wars started during the presidency of George W. Bush. And Barack Obama, were a waste of money and were not secured by American national interests. But do such, seemingly, correct and beautiful words of the current owner of the White House disagree with his affairs?
After all, the current US administration used the same laws that earlier marked the beginning of the wars in Iraq. Afghanistan and Syria, to expand US military involvement in military conflicts in Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Niger, etc.
Moreover, in spite of the seemingly reduction in military spending, which should have followed with a decrease in military activity in the world, the US military budget is growing, and military corporations are getting more and more new government orders …
Yes, the current command of the American president is undoubtedly an interesting position that confronts it with a historic choice: after all, the United States did not win any major wars for almost 30 years (the last time was in 1991, when the operational plan won in the course of «Storms in the desert”, and in the geostrategic — the Soviet Union collapsed).
But at the same time, America all the pastime is in a permanent state of war, participating in several local armed conflicts all over the world. Maybe really enough?
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